MMA Combat - UFC 130 Pick em'
UFC 130 takes place this Saturday, May 28, at the
MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and is headlined by a light heavyweight tilt between Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (31-8-0) and Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (10-2-0).
Here is our
pick em' feature for the main-card of the evening:
Brian Stann (10-3-0) vs. Jorge Santiago (23-8-0)
Jorge Santiago has had a very successful run since his departure from the UFC in December of 2006, after being knocked out by Alan Belcher. 11-1 in that stretch, Santiago was only stopped by the hard-hitting Polish National, Mamed Khalidov in November of 2009. Santiago is as well rounded as they come, with solid Muay Thai technique, great Jiu Jitsu, and a strong Judo base; but he does have a tendency to get tagged during exchanges and while working off his back.
Stann is one of those guys, particularly at 185, that you cannot afford to get tagged against; with 10 wins on his resume, "The All-American" has 7 [T]KOs to his name including his most recent work against the notoriously hard-headed Chris Leben, whom he stopped on strikes in the very first round of their January 1, 2011 contest. This will be a competitive fight, with both men threatening at times,
but it is Brian Stann's power that will make the difference in this one as he stops Santiago late on strikes, spoiling his promotion return.
Travis Browne (10-0-1) vs. Stefan Struve (21-4-0)
It is no secret that Travis Browne, with 8 [T]KO stoppages to his name, hits very hard. The 6'7" Californian last appeared at
UFC 120 where he battled French kickboxer Cheick Kongo to a unanimous draw. Before that he managed a TKO victory over under-sized TUF alumnus James McSweeny at the
Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale; but considering his competition to this point in his career, which is collectively well under .500 as a group, it's difficult to say how Browne will hang with the battle-tested, young veteran of the sport that is Struve.
Struve also has difficulty with defense standing, and while that's bound to improve, he has been hit and hit very hard in many of his fights. But the Dutchman has showed incredible heart throughout his UFC stay, amassing a 5-2 record since February of 2009 when Junior dos Santos welcomed him to promotion with thudding hooks en route to a TKO stoppage. With 14 submission victories thus far in his career, the 6'11"
"Skyscraper" utilizes his long-limbs well to tie opponents up and I expect that he'll discover that knack again his weekend with a submission win.
Rick Story (12-3-0) vs. Thiago Alves (18-7-0)
Rick Story is a powerhouse welterweight with 5 consecutive wins since his June 2009 loss to John Hathaway. His pressing style will not allow Alves to rest or set his feet and I do expect him to secure more than one takedown throughout the fight with his solid wrestling base. Since 2008, Story has won in 11 of 12 appearances and has an ability to grind on opponents, taking them deep into fights; with impressive wins against Jake Ellenberger and Johny Hendricks in that span, Story is a proven warrior against top flight competitors.
Alves looked phenomenal against John Howard, but that match-up was tailor-made for the one-time title challenger. Howard never presented a takedown threat, and was the noticeably smaller man in that bout, allowing "Pitbull" to get off with combinations from range. One aspect of Alves' training that appears to be back on track is his weight-cut with the help of the ever-popular
Dolce Diet, which the
American Top Team representative has become a big endorser of. Alves has succeeded against wrestlers in the past, toppling both Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck, but has also fallen short against two of the division's best in champion Georges St. Pierre and Boilermaker Jon Fitch. How effective Alves is with kicks early will dictate the outcome of this match, but
don't be surprised to see Story pull off the upset with two of three ringside judges giving him the nod in a razor close split decision win.
Roy Nelson (15-5-0) vs. Frank Mir (14-5-0)
Roy Nelson has established himself as more than just a gate-keeper in the UFC's heavyweight division since making his promotion debut in December of 2009; despite being dubbed underwhelming by UFC president Dana White, Nelson has managed 8 [T]KOs in his seven-year professional career. "Big Country" possesses a strong understanding of submissions with more-than-adequate boxing skills when paired up with the majority of the division. His decision loss to Junior dos Santos at
UFC 117 was an admirable effort, and prior to that contest, Nelson had stopped both Stefan Struve and Brendan Schaub on strikes.
Mir has traditionally bounced back strong from disappointing results - or when his back is up against the wall - and regardless of his result against Mirko Filipovic at
UFC 119, Mir was heavily criticized for the performance by the man in charge, Dana White. The former heavyweight champion also boasts strong boxing ability with a submission game to match, but has been known to wilt when the going gets tough and his wrestling ability has never been strong. A telling stat, is that all of Mir's 5 professional losses have come by [T]KO and the longer this fight goes, the more it sways in Nelson's favor. The loser of this match could very well be fighting for a chance to stay in the promotion in their next bout, a position neither man wants to find himself in, but
it will be Nelson's perseverance that seizes the day in this one as he takes it on all three judges scorecards in a competitive match that sees opportunities on both ends.
Quinton Jackson (31-8-0) vs. Matt Hamill (10-2-0)
The main-event, although under-anticipated by the masses of main-stream fans, will prove to be every bit as exciting as the one that preceded it, before lightweight champion Frankie Edgar and challenger Gray Maynard had to pull out of the event with injuries suffered in training.
"Rampage" has great hands, although often lacks a jab that could better set-up those powerful hooks. As confidence in his boxing grew, so did Jackson's tendency to plant his feet, relying less on the explosive clinch work and grappling that made him a star during the
PRIDE years. Still, at any given moment Jackson has the ability to turn Hamill's lights out with his devastating power. How badly he wants to make another title run for the 205lbs belt he once possessed remains to be seen, but "The Hammer" will answer a lot of questions.
Hamill at 10-2 is just that in this commentators eyes, although the results against Jon Jones and Michael Bisping respectively would be different. The fight against Jones should have been stopped, with Hamill a battered mess barely able to defend himself from the onslaught that was, until Jones - in an effort to land clean and finally get his stoppage - threw that illegal elbow that saw him disqualified; but the champ has done that to everyone in his path thus far. Rich Franklin came too early in Hamill's professional career, and I think we can all agree that Michael Bisping did not defeat Hamill at
UFC 75 in Manchester, England.
Expect Hamill to push the pace against "Rampage", using his pawing jab to keep him at bay while effectively scoring with a couple important takedowns en route to a unanimous decision nod.
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